VDM Lallemand, P: Forecasting Fishing Vessels' Costs And Earning

This study describes the New England Otter Trawl Fishery between 1982 and 1998 and the potential economic impacts of regulations on the Northeastern Multispecies Groundfish Fishery (MGF). This research uses primary data collected by the author and secondary data obtained from the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). This analysis required extensive econometric analysis of both value landed and cost data. The landed value is influenced by the vessel's physical characteristics, port of landing, seasonal choices of fishing gear-species combinations, days at sea and distance from shore, and the captain's skill (also referred to as the "skipper effect"). The vessel-cost model is composed of several equations, each corresponding to a variable, indivisible or fixed cost item. The estimated equations are used to synthesize an economic model of vessel behavior, which was used to examine the impacts of selected regulations on the fishing industry. The results indicate differential impacts, which affect larger vessels (especially above 90 feet). This finding is pertinent to concerns often expressed about the survival of small vessels under an individual transferable quota (ITQ) regime.